Master NFL Over/Under Betting WithWinning Strategies
What Exactly Does Over/Under Betting Mean in the NFL?
In the NFL, over/under bets, frequently referred to as totals, involve predicting whether the aggregate score from both teams will exceed or fall below a predetermined value. This number, known as the 'total,' is set by the sportsbook.
Similar to moneyline bets, over/under wagers are straightforward, making them a great option for beginners. In the following section, we'll explain how to place over and under bets on football events.
How To Read Over/Under Odds
Two critical components to understand when interpreting over/under odds are the total and the associated price. The total is the number established by the sportsbook for the match, while the price reflects the amount you need to stake in order to win a certain payout.
Over/Under Totals
For instance, consider a game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. The set total for this game is established at 46.5 points, giving bettors two options for their over/under wagers:
- OVER 46.5 Points
- UNDER 46.5 Points
If the Chiefs win with a score of 24-20, the total score would be 44 (24 + 20 = 44). In this scenario, bets on the UNDER 46.5 points would be victorious, as 44 is lower than 46.5.
Over/Under Price
The pricing for over/under bets operates like that of moneylines. A '−' preceding a number indicates the amount you must wager to earn $100.
Generally speaking, both the 'Over' and 'Under' are charged at odds of –110, which means you need to bet $110 to realize a profit of $100. This principle holds true regardless of the amount you wager. A $55 bet can yield $50, while an $11 stake risks $10.
When there's a ' +' before the odds of an 'Over' or 'Under,' it signifies the amount you would win from a $100 bet. So, if an 'Under' is displayed as +105, betting $100 could earn you $105.
Over/Under NFL Betting Examples?
Often, when people discuss over/under betting in football, they refer primarily to betting on the game's total score. However, there are various other forms of over/under betting available in the NFL. Here are a few examples:
Full-Game Over/Under Betting
The most prevalent type of over/under betting is for full-game totals. This encompasses the entirety of the game, including any overtime periods.
Halves Over/Under Betting
Bettors have the option to place bets on totals for either the first half or the second half of an NFL game. Over/under bets for the second half usually cover overtime as well, unless stated otherwise by the sportsbook.
Quarters Over/Under Betting
Furthermore, over/under bets can be made for individual quarters. Certain sportsbooks allow these bets before the game begins, while others offer them in-play during the match.
Live Betting on Over/Unders
In-game betting in the NFL provides opportunities for bettors to place wagers on moneylines, point spreads, and over/unders while the action unfolds. Betting lines and totals are frequently updated throughout the game in response to the event's progress.
How To Win an NFL Over/Under Bet
When it comes to determining the outcome of over/under betting in the NFL, the only factor that counts is the cumulative score of both teams. The identities of the winning team and the margin of victory don’t affect your bet—only whether your prediction of the combined score being over or under the established total is correct.
For example, consider these hypothetical outcomes for a game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers, where the total is set at 42 points.
- If Los Angeles secures a win with a score of 31-10, the total combined score becomes 41. Hence, the UNDER 42 is the winning bet.
- If Las Vegas wins with a score of 28-24, the total score would be 52, resulting in the OVER 42 being the winning wager.
- Should Los Angeles triumph with a score of 24-18, the final tally totals 42. In this case, both OVER 42 and UNDER 42 bets would be deemed a push (or tie), meaning all placed wagers are returned to the bettors.
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Fundamental Strategies for Over/Under Betting
Now that you're familiar with the concept of over/under betting in football, let's examine some strategies for developing a successful totals betting approach.
Effective bankroll management is crucial when engaging in responsible gambling. Cold streaks are a natural aspect of the ups and downs experienced during the NFL betting season. Therefore, reserve a specific fraction of your bankroll for over/under bets and discipline yourself to adhere to it.
Are the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in the midst of a scoring frenzy? Has the San Francisco 49ers defense been consistently shutting down opponents? Staying abreast of current trends can help you gauge their implications for over/under betting.
Monitoring significant injuries can prove beneficial in the realm of over/under betting. For instance, if a leading player is sidelined, it can significantly influence a game's dynamics and your betting strategy regarding the total.
Evaluate how the location of a game might impact over/under betting outcomes. How do the teams perform in familiar surroundings versus as visitors? Are they playing in a dome or an open-air stadium where adverse weather could hinder offensive capabilities? All these elements substantially influence the scoring flow in an NFL contest.
Point spreads and totals can differ across various online sportsbooks. It's wise to compare odds to find the most favorable options. Securing the OVER 46.5 instead of just OVER 46 could mean the distinction between a push and a win.
Explore Sports Betting Guides and Resources Offered by The Sports Geek
For additional insightful strategy guides and other valuable resources from the experts at The Sports Geek, check out the links below.
Sophisticated Strategies and Insights for Over/Under Betting
While beginners and occasional bettors can derive immense benefits from adhering to the basic over/under strategies mentioned earlier, those seeking to elevate their totals betting should contemplate these advanced strategic concepts.
There's a limit to what you can glean from standard team statistics, such as average points scored and allowed. Resources like Pro Football Reference offer robust analyses of more intricate statistics, including rushing efficiency and quarterback pressure metrics. Investigating advanced statistics of this nature can help you identify offensive or defensive advantages in over/under betting that casual players might overlook.
In addition to advanced statistics, consider other team dynamics, such as their recent performance. Are they facing a well-acquainted division rival? Or are they up against a team from another conference with little time to prepare? Also, take into account the influence of injuries, team morale, and other factors beyond the stats that may alter the game's trajectory and total.
Totals can shift throughout the week as betting patterns evolve. For example, if a total initially opens at 43.5 points and the majority of bettors lean towards the UNDER, the line could drop to 43 or even 42.5. You may decide to follow the crowd or opt for the newly adjusted lines.
When it comes to value betting , pricing is critical. If a game has a 50% chance of exceeding the total, you would place a profitable wager at +110 while a -110 bet would be deemed unprofitable. Look for the most favorable odds and utilize resources like The Sports Geek's Odds Calculator to assess the value proposition of your over/under stakes.
Injuries and unpredictable events occurring during the game can make hedging a wise strategy. For instance, if you bet the OVER 45 on a Cincinnati Bengals game and Joe Burrow suffers a severe hit in the first quarter, you might want to consider betting the UNDER 45 to offset your initial bet. For comprehensive insights on this strategy, refer to our detailed guide on hedging your bets .
Today's sports bettors are equipped with remarkable tools and technology. For instance, the NFL Next Gen Stats page contains advanced statistics, charts, and play animations that can deliver exceptional insights regarding team and player performances. Keep an eye out for innovative resources that can enhance your over/under betting strategies.
Essential Insights for NFL Over/Under Betting
Maximizing Your Success in NFL Over/Under Betting: Expert Tips
